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user picture Paul Carter

July 14, 2021 simulated end-of-season corn yield

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"All models are wrong...some are useful".

This quote by a prominent modeler years ago is accurate for crop end-of-season yield simulation models. These and other crop yield forecast models will never be perfectly accurate, but they can be useful for planning.

Those on the TopYield.Ag network might consider following the corn simulated end-of-season yields provided weekly by the University of Nebraska-Lincoln from the UNL Hybrid-Maize crop model in collaboration with faculty and extension educators from 10 universities.

https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2021/2021-corn-yield-forecasts-july-14

Note the July 14, 2021 forecast yield deviation from long term average for rain-fed corn. Click on the image for a larger view.

It’s early … but does this match with your observations so far in your area?   

Probability of the 2021 yield potential to be below (<10%, red color), near (± 10%, yellow color), and above (>10%, green color) the long-term (2005-2020) average yield potential at each location. The larger a color section is within the pie chart, the higher the probability that end-of-season corn yield will be in that category.

 

 

  • Corn
  • Crop Management
  • Crop Marketing

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Very interesting, thanks Paul for sharing!

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